The 1/10 odds are essentially reserved for the Young Lions on this list but Hiroyoshi Tenzan still has no chance here. His prime is behind him and his role is currently opening match fodder. Tenzan is no longer a main event wrestler and you should expect a first-round exit.
Jay White (9/10)
First Round Opponent: Kazuchika Okada
Jay White has a massive challenge ahead of him. He is scheduled to face Kazuchika Okada in the first-round. This is without a doubt the most interesting first-round matchup in the tournament as these two men are perhaps the two favourites to win the whole thing.
White has been positioned very well since Wrestle Kingdom 14. He has defeated Kota Ibushi and SANADA in big singles matches since he last lost to Naito. He would be a big opponent for Naito and a perfect challenger for the title but it will all depend on if he can beat Okada. Personally, I say he does it and wins the tournament.
Jeff Cobb (2/10)
First Round Opponent: Togi Makabe
Jeff Cobb is in an interesting position. He is working for a number of different promotions but has an interest in continuing to work for New Japan. That being said, he has never been one to be pushed in Japan. That could change with a strong performance here but this doesn’t seem likely.
Juice Robinson (4/10)
First Round Opponent: Alex Coughlin
Oh, Juice. He looked like one of New Japan’s brightest young stars in 2018 when he defeated Jay White for the IWGP United States Championship. Since then it has been one poor showing after another. He had poor showings in the last two G1 Climaxes and was a first-round exit in last year’s New Japan Cup.
He has not had consistent singles success in almost two years but could win a couple of matches this year. Should he win his first two matches he will likely be stopped by Jay White, Minoru Suzuki, or Kazuchika Okada. That, my friends, is where his campaign will end.
Karl Fredericks (1/10)
First Round Opponent: KENTA
Karl Fredericks is a Young Lion with a VERY bright future. He won last year’s Young Lion Cup and has shown a lot of promise. That being said, a Young Lion is not winning this tournament. He could have a good match with KENTA but that will likely be it for him.
Kazuchika Okada (9/10)
First Round Opponent: Jay White
How do you bet against Kazuchika Okada? The best wrestler in the world will compete for the IWGP Heavyweight Championship again. That is a fact. His first-round match with Jay White could put a stop to that plan for the time being.
Okada could win the tournament and be a huge challenger for Naito but it may be a little early for that rematch. Sometimes New Japan goes with the simplest option and this could be just that.
KENTA (7/10)
First Round Opponent: Karl Fredericks
KENTA has had a very interesting last year in New Japan Pro Wrestling. Now a member of Bullet Club, KENTA has already challenged Naito for both of his titles. Although he was unsuccessful, KENTA was a game challenger. It may be too soon to come back with the same match but KENTA is in a very weak bracket and should make at least the semi-finals.
Kota Ibushi (5/10)
First Round Opponent: Zack Sabre Jr.
Kota Ibushi is essentially the opposite of Jay White in terms of success since Wrestle Kingdom 14. White defeated Ibushi on January 5 and Ibushi has not had a singles match since. He and Hiroshi Tanahashi won the IWGP Tag Team Championships so he may be headed in a different direction for the time being. A first-round match with Zack Sabre Jr. will be stellar but I’d wager Sabre takes it.
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